There is a “70 per cent chance” that the Conservative Party and Reform UK will merge or agree to an electoral pact before the next general election, a senior Tory has claimed.
Sir Edward Leigh, who as “father of the House” is parliament’s longest serving MP, also argued that if his party is unable come up with a strong immigration policy ahead of the local elections in May, it will be “slaughtered”.
Leigh, an MP since 1983, added that he did not know if Kemi Badenoch will be leading the party at the next election.
Speaking to GB News, Leigh said that the Conservatives must agree to “a full scale merger” or not compete in 100 seats where Nigel Farage‘s party is strongest, in order to thwart a second Labour term.
Asked about the odds of a merger between the Conservatives and Reform, he said: “Very high — 70 per cent. If not merger, a deal.”
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The Gainsborough MP added: “We can’t just stand against each other in the first past the post system. So I would have at the very least an electoral alliance where we would stand down in 100 seats and let Reform take on Labour, or a full scale merger. And why not?”
Leigh said around a third of the party’s 121 MPs now want a merger or a deal with Reform UK.
“At a bare minimum” the MPs who backed Robert Jenrick in the 2024 Conservative leadership campaign are in favour of doing a deal with Farage’s party, he clarified.
He said: “I would have that at the bare minimum there would be 44, and if we are still in this bad place in a year or two’s time it will be many more than that, maybe half.”
But Leigh insisted that the political logic of some electoral arrangement was “absolutely inevitable”.
He added: “Reform policies don’t go any further than I want to do. I want to have an absolute right to get out of the ECHR [European Convention on Human Rights], arrest boat people when they land on our shores and deport them.
“And I want a zero cap on net legal migration, and there are loads of Tory MPs who agree with me.
“Our policies are absolutely identical and there is no point spending the next three or four years scrapping and then standing against each other in every single constituency and then Keir Starmer gets back into power with 30 per cent of the vote.”
Asked if Badenoch will be leader at the next general election, Leigh said: “I have no idea — I wish her well. I have to say that going back through history we did burn through leaders after we lost badly in 1997 before we got to one who won.”
Commenting on Leigh’s interview with GB News, a Labour spokesperson said: “The Tories continue to say the quiet part out loud: they’re plotting a dodgy backroom deal with Reform to deceive the public.
“The Conservatives wrecked public services and Nigel Farage plans to wreck the NHS — charging patients thousands for routine treatments. Their now open secret risks bringing chaos back to Britain.
“Only Labour will stand up for Britain. Our Plan for Change is delivering investment and reform to deliver growth, put more money in people’s pockets, and secure Britain’s borders.”
Josh Self is Editor of Politics.co.uk, follow him on Bluesky here.
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