In my political circles, there has been ample misery in the wake of storm Trump, which has left a trail of destruction across America and blown the roof off the Democratic Party.
This, of course, is just a foretaste of what could be to come – a devastating political hurricane bringing chaos not just in the US, but worldwide. Batten down the hatches.
Such is life, such is politics. Here in Britain, we’ve learned the hard way that hand-wringing and rage don’t really help much, cathartic as they may be.
With the threat of an untrammelled Trump comes opportunity and, indeed, responsibility, particularly here in Britain, which has been battered by its own political storms in recent years.
Keir Starmer’s government has had a bumpy ride in its first four months, and there can’t be many in Labour celebrating Trump’s return to the White House, however diplomatic the language coming out of No.10.
But, perversely, that Republican victory could be the making of Starmer’s premiership, if he seeks out the opportunities that will arise.
And there will be opportunities aplenty – not easy opportunities, but challenging choices that will give someone, somewhere, the chance to demonstrate courage, leadership and diplomatic nous. That someone should be Keir Starmer.
Take, for example, the likelihood of Trump’s protectionist instincts playing havoc with international trade.
His trade negotiator, Bob Lighthizer, has a ‘robustly nationalist’ approach but one the Biden administration was happy to follow so we’re not entirely on new ground. Turns out this is the stuff of international trade, whoever is president.
From a British perspective, we have to do deals where deals are available. That means grown-up talks with the US but chiefly, of course, with Europe (41 per cent of our exports). The much mentioned ‘reset’ needs to be accelerated. Negotiating full beneficial alignment and a reciprocal youth mobility scheme will free British businesses from Brexit red tape and help deliver economic growth.
In a trade skirmish with the US, Britain cannot effectively act alone – but we can choose to lead, rather than follow, when it comes to drawing up a measured response to an aggressive American play. Heaven knows we could do with burnishing our battered internationalist credentials.
We can take a lead on the climate agenda too. Trump is preparing to go all-in on oil, with more drilling, more pipelines and more fracking in a push to lower costs for consumers. America is expected to again snub the Paris Agreement – and next week’s COP29 meeting has already been derailed, because nothing Biden agrees will bind Trump.
But global investment in clean technology is now twice the spending on coal, oil and gas.
If Trump does squeeze green power, there is an opportunity for Britain to lead development and investment in renewables building on Rachel Reeves’ Budget announcement of a 35 per cent capital uplift for the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero – plus a new investment rule that could allow cash to flood into renewable energy schemes.
Crucially, none of this would put us on a collision course with Trump. But it would show leadership, it would bring short and long-term benefits and it would demonstrate how Trump’s controversial policies can create opportunities for those who are smart enough to grab them.
Another area where Britain must offer leadership with a coalition of the willing, is on defence. Trump’s stance on Ukraine is troubling to say the least and Europe has not yet shown that it is willing to shoulder the burden should the US row back on its support for Zelensky.
Trump’s election has emboldened Russia, alarmed those who wish to see a free Ukraine, and prompted Joe Biden to rush billions of dollars of aid to Ukraine before he leaves office.
Morally, it remains imperative that Putin is not rewarded for warmongering. Practically, it is now essential that Britain draws nearer to its European neighbours.
Europe has outsourced much of its security to the US and we could soon see the consequences of that play out. The UK, Germany, France and the rest of Europe must be in lockstep when it comes to dealing with Putin, militarily, politically and in using Russian financial assets sequestered in Europe against the Russian war machine.
Trump’s disturbing respect for Putin could have the unexpected consequence of bringing us nearer to our neighbours and at Best for Britain, we have the constituency level data to demonstrate to Starmer’s team that this would be not just the right thing to do, but popular with voters.
Trump will be an unwelcome feature of political life for many of us, and his policies may make us uncomfortable.
Yes, he is difficult but the world is difficult. Our job is to navigate the challenges of that world as best we can, seeking out the unexpected opportunities that can arise when a disruptor such as Trump settles into high office.
And, as we do that, we also look to our own political leaders to do the right thing, to lead by example, in partnership with allies in Europe, to make our world better even as others are intent on breaking things.
In doing so, they will not only cement their own reputations; they will provide shelter from the gathering storm.
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