The Conservative Leadership Race Will Be Crowded, Protracted And Likely Bitter

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As of yet, no Conservative has explicitly declared their intention to stand for the party leadership, but the crowd of ambitious prospects is large and growing nonetheless.

This morning, Mel Stride became the latest Tory to confirm he is considering a run to succeed Rishi Sunak as leader. Conducting the broadcast media round today, a familiar forum for Stride, the shadow work and pensions secretary claimed he has been approached by several colleagues, all urging him to seek election as Conservative chief.

“[Running for the leadership is] something I’m considering”, he told Times Radio. Although his most revealing remark followed on Sky News, when he admitted there was a “reasonable chance” he will throw his hat into the ring.

Stride’s comments follow a timely (read planted) report in the i newspaper, which suggested the former work and pensions secretary could stand as a “unity” candidate.

As such, Stride joins a crowded field of not-yet-declared leadership candidates, including but not limited to Priti Patel, Tom Tugendhat, Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman, James Cleverly, Kevin Hollinrake, Robert Jenrick, Victoria Atkins and potentially Laura Trott and Claire Coutinho as well.

If that sounds like a lot of candidates, that’s because it is. Stride included, this list counts 11 Conservative MPs out of a total 121 as being tipped for a leadership run — over 9 per cent of the parliamentary party. (This figure, of course, would be higher still if Grant Shapps, Penny Mordaunt and Gillian Keegan had retained their seats at the election).

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There are a few ways of explaining the incipient Conservative leadership contest’s crowded nature. To take one: the Conservatives’ recent political trauma, which saw the party cycle rapidly through cabinet ministers from 2019-2024, meant several MPs acquired government experience, media profiles and ambition.

Another explanation accounts for the fact that many Tories see 2029 as a workable deadline for an electoral comeback. Considering the last election’s low turnout, Labour’s 34 per cent vote share and Britain’s historically volatile electorate, prospective Conservative challengers simply back themselves to turn the party’s fortunes around by the time of the next election — despite their lowly parliamentary status at present.

Stride expressed this view explicitly this morning, telling Sky News that if the Conservatives can unite under a new leader they will be “unstoppable”. “I am quite optimistic, that we can actually turn this around in one cycle, that we can be back in government the next time around, just as the Labour Party did after that terrible defeat in 2019”, he added.

Ultimately, with ambitious Tories still in the “taking soundings” and/or pre-declaration phase of their candidacies, the frontrunner remains Kemi Badenoch, the shadow housing secretary.

In a ConservativeHome leadership survey of 995 party members conducted earlier this month, Badenoch featured first at 26 per cent, ahead of former immigration minister Robert Jenrick (13 per cent), shadow security minister Tom Tugendhat (also 13 per cent), former home secretary Suella Braverman (10 per cent) and shadow home secretary James Cleverly (9 per cent).

Priti Patel, Victoria Atkins and ex-“common sense minister” Esther McVey fell between 3 per cent and 1 per cent. The “Don’t knows” numbered 16 per cent.

Badenoch has long been touted as the frontrunner to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, even months before the general election was called and lost. Frontrunner status in such a crowded contest is a significant burden (albeit one Badenoch has shouldered well so far); and the number of Conservative undecideds, among both members and no doubt MPs, points to a remarkably open contest at this stage.

And what of the contest timetable? According to reports, following a lengthy meeting of the influential backbench 1922 Committee last week, the leadership schedule looks set to involve candidate hustings at conference later this year.

With the official process expected to be unveiled this week, the primary risk of a protracted contest is that Labour will face only an interim opposition in the commons for months yet. That could enable other insurgent parties, such as the Liberal Democrats and especially Reform, to fill the media-political void. It also raises questions over the role of Rishi Sunak, who may not want to serve as chief opposition spokesperson for the entirety of this period.

The decision among Conservative MPs to go “long” with a contest also helps explain why leadership contenders are not rushing to declare, instead choosing to plot in the shadows and issue targeted briefings. In this regard, whichever contender declares first will be a brave Tory indeed — given they’ll lift their head above the parapet to a barrage of hostile briefings, drawn up by the teams of as-yet-undeclared opponents.

As such, it’s easy to see how a protracted contest could become a bitter one too, as frontrunner status is fought over among Tories who all calculate they have a great deal to gain from an attack-heavy campaign. Kemi Badenoch, the ostensible frontrunner today, is of course well-known for her combative style.

Over the course of the coming campaign, Badenoch’s primary tussle will be with Robert Jenrick over who can emerge as the primary champion of the Conservative right. The winner of this battle among MPs — if recent precedent serves as a guide — will then face off with the moderate tribute in a vote of the membership. Tom Tugendhat, at this stage, would seem well-placed to seize this latter mantle.

Meanwhile, former home secretary Suella Braverman — who is running the most overtly rightwing shadow leadership campaign — could prove a divisive property in the contest. That said, her recent rants are reported to have unnerved even her staunchest allies, with Danny Kruger and Sir John Hayes — chairs of the New Conservatives and Common Sense Group respectively — reported to have offered their services to Jenrick.

The Conservative Party, it is widely implied, is finally turning its back on Braverman — might Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, in time, prove a lasting home for the firebrand politician and her controversy-stoking?

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