Can Ed Davey’s Lib Dems ‘finish The Job’ And Overtake The Conservative Party?

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Sir Ed Davey will address the Liberal Democrat conference in Brighton today, delivering his first major speech since the party’s historic election success.

Addressing buoyant activists, Davey will reflect that millions of voters put their trust in his party at the last election, and vow to be true to the Liberal Democrats’ mandate.

The recent general election saw Davey’s party secure 72 MPs — the best showing of the Lib Dems’ modern electoral history — making advances across the “Blue Wall” of Conservative heartland constituencies.

Today, Davey will look to double-down on his party’s Tory-routing ways, vowing to “finish the job” of defeating Conservative MPs at future elections. As such, he will argue that Rishi Sunak’s party has not just proven itself “unfit to govern” but “unfit for opposition too”.

Davey will say: “It’s hardly surprising I suppose. Expecting that lot to hold the government to account on the NHS or the economy would be like putting a bull in charge of repairing the china shop.”

Read more about what to expect from Davey’s speech here.

As such, the Lib Dem leader’s intent seems pretty clear: he wants to overtake the Conservatives as Britain’s second party. My thoughts below on this decidedly ambitious objective.

Can Ed Davey destroy the Conservatives?

During the recent election campaign, one recurring subtheme concerned the possibility that the Liberal Democrats — led by a buccaneering, bungee-jumping Sir Ed Davey — could leap over the Conservative Party into second place.

Prompted by predictions of a Tory apocalypse, Lib Dem activists suddenly became all a quiver about the prospect Davey could emerge as leader of His Majesty’s Most Loyal Opposition. The Economist magazine was one of many publications to note the burgeoning interest in the Lib Dems’ chances, as it considered the “small but significant chance” the party could overtake Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives.

With questions around “Gamblegate” and the PM’s D-Day debacle swirling, commentators were simply forced to reconsider the Conservatives’ worst-case scenario: third place seemed like a possibility.

But this eventuality, of course, did not come to pass.

This said, Davey did succeed in beating the Scottish National Party (SNP) to third place — an achievement that is already having profound ramifications at Westminster. As the leader of the third largest party in the commons, Davey now rightfully delivers two questions at prime minister’s questions each week. Stephen Flynn of the SNP, a onetime PMQs star, is relegated to hopeful “bobbing”.

And yet Ed Davey is still not content. He will today tell Lib Dem activists that the Conservative Party is “not fit for opposition” and vow to “finish the job” of relegating Sunak’s beleaguered outfit to third place.

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Ostensibly, this rhetoric reflects a wider electoral reality: across the country, the Liberal Democrats’ primary opponent remains the Conservative Party. Davey’s challenge this parliament is to entrench his party’s supremacy in newly won seats, while expanding into further Tory-Lib marginals. (Shadow work and pensions secretary Mel Stride’s Central Devon seat stands out in this regard: Stride won the constituency with a majority of 61 in July).

There are, after all, few seats in which the main challenger to Labour is the Liberal Democrats — Nick Clegg’s old seat of Sheffield Hallam is one notable exception.

The lack of Lib-Lab marginals reflects the ruthlessly effective strategy pursued by each party and their respective voters at the general election. The last election saw an unprecedented interest in tactical voting — with a “Get the Tories Out” fever gripping constituencies up and down the country. During the campaign, there were even reports of Lib Dem and Labour activists travelling to each others’ target seats in order to canvas on behalf of their nominal opponents. I referred to this phenomenon, at the time, as “Tactical campaigning”.

The Labour and Liberal Democrat parties’ success in working alongside each other is written into the election’s results. Labour won 411 seats on 33.7 per cent of the vote and the Lib Dems won 72 seats with 12.2 per cent — evidence of immense electoral efficiency. Contrast that to the Conservatives’ score of 121 seats on 23.7 per cent and Reform’s 5 MPs with 14.3 per cent of the vote. Simply put, Labour and Lib Dem voters — both new and old — worked together to weaponise Britain’s First Past the Post system and unseat as many Conservative incumbents as possible.

But this de facto Lib-Lab electoral alliance is showing nascent signs of political vulnerability. In his speech to conference today, Davey will pledge to “cut through the [Labour] government’s doom and gloom with our ambition for our country” — adding that the nation’s problems “will be solved the way Britain has always done in the past, by rising to our challenges with guts, determination, and hope.” And already this parliament, the Lib Dems have opposed the government over its winter fuel payment cuts and decision to maintain the two-child benefit cap.

There is some basic political logic informing these moves, that said. To maintain a foothold in ex-Conservative constituencies, Davey must prove he can hold the government to account on the issues that matter most. But all the while, he will continue to level attacks at the “chaotic” Tory Party, effectively working with Keir Starmer to corral popular sentiment against the Conservatives and their record in government.

It is, however, difficult to disguise the fact that voters who desire a change of government in five years’ time, will find themselves drawn away from the Lib Dems. Davey will struggle to meaningfully make the same case for change (to traditional Tory voters, note) from Labour.

As such, it is easy to see how strategic divisions could rise within Liberal Democrat ranks as this parliament progresses. For one: there will be those MPs who seek to prioritise a local/constituency-facing approach, attempting to hold back any Tory revival in their specific area. This could potentially conflict with the national party’s imperative to foreground a unifying Lib Dem identity.

The bottom line is this: electoral “efficiency” is a double-edged sword. The Lib Dems, just as much as Labour, may struggle to maintain a coherent pitch as the foundations of their widespread but shallow electoral coalition shake over the coming years.

Today, therefore, Davey is revelling in his party’s recent electoral success. But beyond the conference hall, strategic dilemmas undoubtedly await.

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