The Early Warning Signs Facing Keir Starmer And Labour

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Keir Starmer is marking the first day of recess (the commons will return on 7th October following party conferences) with a trip to Washington DC for talks with US president Joe Biden.

The prime minister is expected to meet Biden in the White House for talks on resolving the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. It follows pleas from Ukraine to lift restrictions on using Western weaponry against Russian targets.

Foreign secretary David Lammy and US secretary of state Antony Blinken visited Kyiv earlier this week to announce further financial support for Ukraine, including a £600 million package from the UK and $717 million (£550 million) from the US to meet immediate humanitarian, energy and stabilisation needs.

Starmer’s second stateside trip as prime minister comes after a week of tense domestic politics, that saw the government face concerted fire from both Labour rebels and opposition MPs over its decision to cut the winter fuel payment.

Elsewhere, Labour has been forced to firm further scrutiny over its claim the Conservatives left a £22 billion “black hole” in the public finances. And that’s without mentioning the release of thousands of people to combat chronic prison overcrowding — a measure that has proved expectedly controversial.

These policies and controversies have been wrapped up in messaging that has gone gung-ho on “gloom” at the expense, critics allege, of either hope or optimism — feelings that you’d expect to flow after an electoral victory as seismic as Labour’s. Starmer’s political “honeymoon period”, briefly suspended by the riots, may now have been entirely lost.

Certainly, this observation is reflected in new polling data that records sharp falls in public favourability for both Starmer and chancellor Rachel Reeves.

According to Ipsos’ latest “Political Pulse” report, Labour is still much more popular with voters than the Conservative Party — the ratings for which have not shown signs of rallying since the election. (The Tories’ net favourability stands at -28, versus Labour’s at -9).

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Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves, however, boast ratings of -14 and -21 respectively — drops from zero and -8 last month. Forebodingly, the percentage who view the PM unfavourably (46 per cent) matches the highest level of negativity previously recorded for Starmer by Ipsos, which came in the wake of the Hartlepool by-election in 2021. This by-election, won by the Conservatives after a 16 point swing from Labour, has entered Labour legend as the lowest point of Starmer’s leadership.

All this said, positivity towards the prime minister and his party among Labour voters remains unchanged this month at 69 per cent. And as Politics.co.ukreported earlier this week, Starmer does significantly better than any of the four remaining Tory leadership candidates in head-to-head matchups.

But such caveats aside, it is clear theses figures amount to “early warning signs” for Starmer, as Keiran Pedley, director of politics at Ipsos, puts it.

“There are some early warning signs in these numbers for Keir Starmer and Labour”, Pedley says. “Whilst the next general election is several years away — and perceptions of Labour remain stronger than perceptions of the Conservative Party — these figures do represent a sharp drop from those recorded in August”.

They also come as a poll from More in Common, the organisation’s first since the election, records Labour’s lead over the Conservatives dropping by 6 points. According to the findings, which you can find in full here, Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has been cut to just 4 points (29 per cent vs. 25 per cent), with the Liberal Democrats, Reform and the Greens all rising. “Early warning signs” indeed.

As such, conference season could have arrived at an ideal moment for Starmer, who will see his party fête as an opportunity to reset.

With stories of leadership squabbling set to emanate from the Tories’ gathering, Labour will look to reclaim the narrative ahead of a politically awkward budget on 30th October.

As ever, let me know your thoughts on today’s topics by replying, emailing [email protected] or reaching out on Twitter/X here. Have a great rest of your day.

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