Some four in ten members of the Conservative Party are said to favour a merger with Reform UK, according to a poll out today by the polling firm Yougov.
Although the majority of the 910 Conservative Party members who were randomly polled (51%) opposed any idea of a merger, a high 42% supported the idea, with 7% undecided.
Half of the Conservative members sampled (52%) believed that combining with Reform UK would be electorally advantageous to the party.
Instead it is differences in political identity which appear to be restricting support for a merger between the two forces now straddling the right of UK politics. According to the Yougov poll, 48% of Conservative members described themselves as being ‘slightly right wing’, whilst 82% viewed Reform UK as either ‘very right wing’ or ‘fairly right’ wing.
The split within the today’s figures provides a warning to the incoming Conservative leader about the internal dangers to the party of making overtures in the direction of Reform UK.
Despite the poll showing that a proportion of Conservative members (30%) were favourable to the idea of Nigel Farage becoming party leader at some point in the future, almost a third stated that they were “strongly” opposed to a merger with Reform UK.
Regardless of what the Conservative Party might think, there are little indications that Reform UK would favour any merger with the Conservatives.
Prior analysis by politics.co.uk of the statements of Reform UK candidates during the general election showed many of them to be exceptionally, even pathologically, hostile to the Conservatives.
In this summer’s general election Reform UK won more than 4 million votes and came second in some 98 seats, 89 of which were won by Labour.
Freed from the baggage of the Conservative record in government, it is not obvious that any merger with the Conservatives would appeal to the Reform UK leadership. Reform UK’s strategy would instead appear to be one that is set on being best placed to target Labour in its heartlands of the Midlands, Yorkshire and the North East of England.
Indeed it may be premature to believe that the Reform UK bandwagon is about to slow any time soon. As Sir Keir Starmer heads to Germany today, Reform UK will have noticed the parallel across the water.
In late 2021 when Olaf Scholz’s left of centre government took office after sixteen years of Conservative hegemony, the populist Alternative für Deutschland Party (AfD) was polling 10%, only a little below the 14% secured by Reform UK at the time that Labour took office. Rolling forward two years, polls currently show the AfD to be in second place in German politics, polling around the 20% mark.
Today’s YouGov poll of Conservative Party members does though reflect the ongoing debate about party strategy being played out in the current leadership race. Once again there appears a reasonable divide in approach. Half of the party members polled (51%) believed that the Conservatives should now move to the right, whilst 34% felt the party should move more towards the centre ground.
The new Conservative party leader is to be announced on 2nd November.
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